Nevada Senate Race Is Breaking in Democrats’ Favor

Democratic Senator Jacky Rosen has built a lead over Republican challenger Sam Brown in Nevada’s Senate race, despite the state remaining a toss-up in the presidential election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
Nevada is expected to be among the most important battlegrounds this November. Republicans haven’t carried Nevada in a presidential race since 2004, but it was one of the closest states in the 2020 race between Trump and President Joe Biden, and Republican Joe Lombardo flipped the governorship in 2022. Republicans—on paper—have a prime opportunity to perform well in the Silver State in November.
But Rosen appears poised to run ahead of the top of the ticket in the Senate race, according to recent polls of Nevada voters. FiveThirtyEight’s polling aggregate showed Rosen leading Brown by more than 9 points Thursday afternoon.
Rosen, a former computer programmer, is running for her second Senate term after unseating former Senator Dean Heller in the 2018 midterms, which saw Democrats make gains across the country.
She has cast herself as a more moderate Democrat, emphasizing issues like abortion on the campaign trail in Nevada, where 76 percent of residents support abortion rights—only behind Hawaii and Massachusetts, according to a 2023 Public Religion Research Institute study. The state will be voting on an abortion rights ballot measure on Nov. 5, something Democrats hope will bolster turnout in the state.
Republicans hoped that Brown’s resume as a combat veteran, Purple Heart recipient and businessman would help him win over swing voters. He received the endorsement of Trump, and has focused on issues like immigration and the economy.
He has also staked out a more moderate view on abortion, backing the state’s current abortion law over a wider ban on the procedure. He has described himself as “pro life, with exceptions for the tragic cases of rape, incest, and situations where the mother’s life is at risk.”
Dan Lee, professor of political science at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, told Newsweek the gap between the two candidates may narrow over the next few weeks, as undecided voters backing Trump in the presidential race are likely to eventually vote for Brown. Rosen’s lead may be so large because Brown is more unknown to the general electorate, he said.
Still, Brown is “running out of time” to close the gap against Rosen, Lee said. Rosen may have an edge due to her incumbency, as well as her emphasis on reproductive rights and bipartisanship.
An Emerson College poll, which surveyed 900 likely voters from October 5 to October 8, showed Rosen leading Brown by about 8 points (50 percent to 42 percent). That same polls showed Harris up only one point in the state (49 percent to 48 percent).
An RMG Research/Napolitan Institute poll showed Rosen up 16 points (56 percent to 40 percent), while Harris and Trump were tied, each receiving 49 percent o the vote. The poll surveyed 782 likely voters from September 30 to October 3.
FiveThirtyEight’s polling average showed Rosen up 9.2 points, while Real Clear Politics’ average showed her leading by 7.5 points on Thursday.
Newsweek reached out to the Brown and Rosen campaigns for comment via email.
Rosen also holds a large fundraising advantage over Brown, according to campaign finance data reported by the nonprofit OpenSecrets.
She has raised more than $31 million, and spent $21.8 million, leaving her with about $9.5 million in the bank as of June 30. Meanwhile, Brown has raised $9.5 million and dispersed $6.4 million, and had about $3.1 million as of September 29.
“That’s giving her a little electoral boost over Sam Brown,” Lee said.
But it’s the economy that may be the most important issue for Nevada voters, as the state’s finances were hit particularly hard by lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020. Democrats have faced backlash from some voters after the measures aimed at preventing the virus’ spread slowed the state’s economy, which is largely built on tourism.
“That really played out in the gubernatorial election in 2022, where a Republican beat the Democratic incumbent. That’s still an issue, especially when you look at inflation, the cost of living and price of housing,” Lee said.
He noted that the “lingering effects” of the pandemic, including inflation and unemployment, continue to play a key role in the race.
A New York Times/Siena College poll, conducted among 677 likely voters from August 12 to August 15, showed that 24 percent of Nevadans view the economy as the most important issue of the election, more than any other issue.
Brown has sought to tie Rosen to the economic policies of the Biden administration, which Republicans say led to high inflation in the recovery of the pandemic; inflation has since dropped, however, leading the Federal Reserve last month to announce an interest rate cut.
Rosen told NBC News on Thursday that she would like to hear Harris discuss the economy during a Univision town hall in Las Vegas set to air Thursday night.
“What I want to hear from her tonight, or wherever she is, is what she’s been doing: It’s about an opportunity economy, one that works for everyone; it’s about expanding our middle class,” she said.
Economic issues and backlash over lockdowns contributed to Governor Lombardo’s victory in 2022, when he unseated then-Governor Steve Sisolak by 1.5 points. That same year, Democratic Senator Catherine Cortez Masto won reelection by less than a point.
Biden won Nevada by 2.4 points in 2020, the same margin as former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s win in the state in 2016.
Update 10/10/24, 6:38 p.m. ET: This article was updated with additional information.